中国通货膨胀持续性的非对称特征研究--基于分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根的研究

基于1990－2013年中国月度CPI数据,本文通过运用分位数自回归模型和分位数单位根检验方法,研究了中国通货膨胀惯性的非对称特征,并分析了不同分位点上的通货膨胀惯性系数、单位根检验结果和半衰期。结果发现：中国的通货膨胀持续期存在明显的非对称特征,1998年之后通货膨胀持续性要显著低于1998年之前;相比于高通货膨胀水平,低通货膨胀水平上的通货膨胀持续性要显著降低。     

事业单位国有资产管理的制度设计、治理机制及其他

对事业单位国有资产管理进行改革已越来越迫切.作为规范性的事业单位的主体社会公益型组织,评价其资产管理工作的好坏不是以它们所创造的货币收益多少为指标,而必须研究设计出一整套多元的科学指标体系;应在医院、学校等事业单位建立理事会或董事会治理结构;重建成本核算的财务会计制度.     

我国沿海地区渔业发展的收敛特征研究

我国沿海地区渔业的加速发展伴随着渔业区域差异的相应变动.借鉴经济增长区域差异的研究思路,分别采用变异系数和傅里叶单位根检验方法对沿海地区渔业发展的σ收敛和β收敛趋势进行检验.研究结果表明,我国沿海地区渔业发展的σ收敛趋势较弱,而β收敛特征集中于渔业发展水平较高的省份,呈现“俱乐部收敛”态势.因此,沿海各省份应根据自身实际情况采取相应措施,提高渔业发展水平,同时推进渔业的区域协调发展.     

共识、合作、自我和谐：构建和谐单位的三重奏

和谐社会是一种理念,是我们社会的追求、目标和共识,包含了团结、公平、共识、理解、包容等观念。单位是社会的细胞,本文从事业、团队和个人三个层面论述了构建和谐单位的着眼点,即事业要发展,团队要合作,心态要阳光,并以激励措施为例,提出了构建和谐单位的一些做法设想。     

Balancing budget through tax increases or expenditure cuts: is it neutral?

Fiscal adjustment currently ranks at the top in the economic policy agenda of many OECD countries, and not only those European countries aiming to meet the Maastricht convergence criteria. Recently, Alesina and Perotti argued that successful cases of fiscal adjustment resulted from cutting expenditures, while those focusing on tax increases were unsuccessful. The paper, using a bivariate VECM representation for the joint government revenue–government expenditure dynamics for five of the main OECD countries, provides two contributions to this issue. First, it proposes and performs a neutrality test of the alternative adjustment strategies (through revenue or expenditures), second it characterizes the departure from neutrality in the three countries where the neutrality hypothesis is rejected. The conclusion, prevailing for these three countries, is that adjustment through taxes not only is inefficient, but even results in a perverse effect with induced extra expenditures which more than offset the increase in government revenue.     

The Momentum Effect in Latin American Emerging Markets

We find that momentum strategies yield profits in Latin American emerging markets. Both stock type and country play a major role in explaining the momentum effect in these markets, but stock type is much more important. For risk-averse investors, winner portfolios stochastically dominate loser portfolios in these markets, implying that there are no asset-pricing models consistent with risk-averse investors that can rationalize the momentum effect. The results obtained via the bootstrap procedure without replacement also uphold this conclusion.     

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN GHANA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors accounting for inflation dynamics in Ghana using the bounds test and other econometric approaches. We find that real output, nominal exchange rate, broad money supply, nominal interest rate and fiscal deficit play a dominant role in the inflationary process in Ghana. To the extent that output growth by far has the strongest impact on inflation, targeting supply‐side constraints will help moderate price inflation. The paper concludes that inflation in Ghana is explained by a combination of structural and monetary factors consistent with prior studies.     

Unit root tests with double trend breaks and the 1990s recession in Japan

This paper applies to Japanese macroeconomic series unit root tests that allow for the possibility of up to two endogenous break points. The presence of a single structural break around the first oil price shock in 1973 turns out to be very sensitive to the amplitude of the data sample and, in particular, it disappears when one extends the sample to the observations of the 1990s. This may indicate the presence of a second structural break, the existence of which is tested with a unit root test with a two-break alternative hypothesis for which we compute finite sample critical values. Interestingly enough, the hypothesis of the absence of a second break occurring in the 1990s can be rejected. Such results seem to indicate that the deep recession of the 1990s in Japan may not be the reflection of a negative output-gap, but that of a fall in the growth trend of output as a consequence of a huge productivity shock.     

The inflation rates may accelerate after all: panel evidence from 19 OECD economies

The stationarity of inflation has many important economic implications. Most panel-based empirical studies do not handle cross-sectional dependence, which will result in power distortion. This paper applies a nonlinear IV estimator to calculate the test statistic of panel unit root (Chang in J Econom 110:261–292, 2002), which accounts for general cross-sectional correlation. Using monthly inflation rates, two statistics proposed by Im et al. (J Econom 115:53–74, 2003) reject the unit root; however, the nonlinear IV statistic accepts the unit root. That is, the ignored cross-sectional correlation may lead to over-rejection of the unit root null. In a nutshell, unlike current literature, the inflation rates may accelerate after all.     

A methodology for the choice of the best fitting continuous-time stochastic models of crude oil price

The crude oil price is generally considered as the fundamental factor in the valuation of undeveloped reserves but it is not the unique one. Undeveloped field value also depends on the uncertainty relating to the convenience yield and the risk-free interest rate. The purpose of this paper is to decide on the best continuous-time stochastic models for these risk factors. The Generalized Method of Moments and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation are implemented to fit the parameters of continuous-time stochastic processes. The results of unit root tests without breaks reveal a mean reversion in convenience yield series. Multiple structural change tests show that the risk-free interest rate can be considered constant. The simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes and the mean error between the simulated prices and the market ones show that the Geometric Brownian Motion with jumps is the best model for the oil price compared to the other commonly used processes.